What Would a Trump or Harris Administration Look Like?
The Runaround, Vol. 0.9.2 - The "just go read Axios" edition
TL/DR: If you only read two election-related things this week, they should probably be these two Axios articles: What happens if Trump sweeps the GOP into power and What happens if Harris sweeps Democrats into power.
Backing up: The stage is set: it’s going to be tight. The Senate is likely to flip to Republicans. Texas is likely to look a lot like Texas. The US House and Presidency could break either way.
As polls have settled, I’ve thought more about the consequences of this election. What would a second Trump administration look like? A first Harris administration? What are the stakes of a Republican or Democratic controlled House?
This is tricky territory. Because humans experience time in one direction, this is all guessing, informed by (1) pundits’ own biases, (2) their ongoing election-positioning, and (3) their efforts to shape that new administration.
I can think of at least two ways to come at this even-handedly. The first is to look at what allies and opponents are saying for both sides. The second is to look at the people likely to have influence in the new administration—after all, our friends shape our future selves.
What are the issues that the candidate, campaigns, and allies talk about regularly?
Trump: Inflation, tariffs, border security, mass deportation of immigrants here with and without papers, dismantling the deep state, going after political enemies, investing in fossil fuels, pulling back from foreign affairs and treaties, rebuilding US manufacturing, and maybe a national abortion ban, but maybe not.
It’s worth taking time to read Trump’s platform. But it’s also worth watching some of his rallies, which are now markedly different than the messages coming from his professional campaign.
Harris: Bringing down prices, climate change and renewable energy, continued US involvement in global conflicts, the reestablishment of Roe v Wade, expanding Obamacare, the “opportunity economy,” and maybe ending the filibuster.
Check out Harris’s platform, too, including their constant reference to Project 2025, an effort by Trump allies to prepare for the administration but from which Trump has now tried to distance himself.
Who are the people likely to join the administration?
Trump: As The Hill puts it, “Former President Trump is in the unusual position of not being backed by a number of members of his previous Cabinet.” This is kid-gloving it, The Hill. As of August 2024, only half of Trump’s cabinet officials had endorsed him.
This will leave Trump in an unusual position of having to start in part from scratch. And as JD Vance put it in a recent interview, he’s going to make sure there are no “snakes” in a second administration. Think RFK Jr., Michael Flynn, Steve Bannon, and Stephen Miller, along with more familiar faces like Marco Rubio or Doug Burgum.
Harris: Having become the nominee basically yesterday, there have been fewer leaks about a Harris cabinet, though she’s reportedly considering keeping some of Biden’s cabinet in place to make sure a Republican-controlled Senate can’t block all her appointments up front.
Because of how fast the campaign is moving, a lot of this is even more speculative—which of course hasn’t stopped reporters. On the list are mostly standard-issue Democrats (plus Liz Cheney?), suggesting more of a continuation than a break from the Biden administration.
What will they actually try to do? Be able to get done? This is where you should absolutely go read Axios:
Hang in there!
