The Runaround, Vol. 0.9.4
Return of the Red Guys
Welcome Back
This will be the last installment of The Runaround. If you have found it useful or interesting, please let me know! It will help me shape kind of public-facing writing I take on next.
What Happened
You know all this, but to recap: Trump and Republicans over performed in nearly every way across the country this week. Trump will be the 47th president and Republicans will control the Senate.
No one has called the House for Republicans yet, but looking at the New York Times' US House Forecast, it seems more likely than not that Trump’s strong showing will trickle down to the House races, too.
Trump did better with nearly every demographic group, in nearly every geographic area. The NYT change in margin map (below) is a pretty intense visualization of which way America moved this week.
What this means is that there isn’t an obvious group for Democrats to blame. That means it’s also unclear what direction the party needs to take in order to make a more compelling pitch to voters in 2026.
Really, Though, What Happened?
A reporter asked me this morning what the Harris campaign did wrong. I couldn’t name anything—there were slips here and there, but the Harris campaign was by most accounts a well-run shop that raised and spent a historical boatload of money.
Instead, I think we can point to a handful of national-level factors. What am I missing?
Voters hate the economy and want to see change
Voters dislike the direction of the country generally and want to burn some things down
Voters are excited about a strongman government and less committed to constitutional democracy than we’d like to think
Voters didn’t buy that Trump was as anti-abortion as the rest of the Republican Party
Voters are still mad about the Biden administration’s border policies
It might also be that some voters just wouldn’t pull the lever for a woman at the top of the ticket. Political science research hasn’t been able to find that kind of sexism when they have looked at down-ballot. But we only have two instances of women running for President, and they both lost
What Didn’t Happen
Democrats haven’t rioted, and Republicans have stopped sounding the alarm about election fraud.
The Texas Swing
In Texas, Republicans had a similarly commanding night, thanks in large part to this national swing in Republicans’ favor in a country where people know less and less about local races.
Ted Cruz was always favored to win, but he beat Allred by a margin even larger than his own team was predicting and by much more than Cruz defeated Beto O’Rourke in 2018
Republicans’ dominance in Texas also means that the 2025 legislative cycle will likely be much more conservative. What had been shaping up as a Phelan v. Abbott v. Patrick battle royale is likely to be much more consistently hardline
More locally, the same goes for Tarrant County, which contains UTA and Fort Worth. Though a fairly evenly split county (Allred might squeak out a “win” here), the county-level Republican leadership should be feeling pretty emboldened this morning
Don’t count Texas out, yet. Midterm elections (like the one coming in 2026) are usually bad news for the party that controls the presidency. It’s reasonable to think that 2026 will be a swing back toward Democrats nationally, which could also filter down to Texas
What to Expect
In a recent newsletter, I pointed readers to a series of Axios posts wargaming different election outcomes. One was what to expect from a Trump sweep; another was what to expect if Trump is hemmed in by a Democratic-controlled US House. Those are worth revisiting. A few thought bubbles:
I don’t think Americans are generally aware of how transformative Trump’s policies will be. Just to take one: JD Vance thinks the administration can and should deport and a million people a year. In a recent 60 Minutes episode, a former Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) chief of staff estimated that would take 100,000 ICE agents, 94,000 thousand more agents than the agency has today.
Consider this: Over 4 million American children have at least one caregiver that is undocumented, according to Pew Research Center.
This is just one example of a policy—love it or hate it—that will reshape how our government and society operate.
It’s also worth keeping an eye on who the 47th President picks for his cabinet and close advisors, and which factions of the Republican Party are able to bend his ear most effectively.
Trump is hard to pin down—he will say multiple things about the same issue. Expect him to deliver on the things he cares about—immigration, tariffs, pulling back foreign aid. For other issues he doesn’t really care about—abortion, education, vaccines, gay rights—to be wrestled over by those advisors and other powerful factions within the Republican Party.
It’s way too early, but consider the 2026 election: Historically, the president’s party does quite poorly (Biden was somewhat of an exception, but I think only relative to outlandish predictions). Expect 2026 to be intense, and for Democrats to do well.
One question worth considering: Who from your community do you would best represent you? Maybe it’s time for you to start elbowing them into running themselves.
Drop questions or additions if you’ve got them. And if you don’t do anything else, connect in person or over the phone with someone that will help you process your reaction to these results!
Signing off for now,
MCH